Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 350 game sample- PTS
- 20.8
- SOG
- 125.1
- G
- 3.2
- A
- 17.7
- PPP
- 0.3
- HIT
- 81.9
- BLK
- 128.0
- PIM
- 47.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 350 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 350 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 350 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.25
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.52
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.00
- BLK
- 1.57
- PIM
- 0.58
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 0.20 | 122 | 20:53 |
| 2024-25 | 60 | 0 | 21 | 21 | 0.35 | 109 | 21:07 |
| 2023-24 | 58 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 0.28 | 71 | 20:17 |
| 2022-23 | 61 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 0.34 | 97 | 21:39 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 0.36 | 104 | 21:17 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 4 | 22:19 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 9 | 23:48 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:30 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:30 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:20 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 22:22 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:28 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21:17 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22:04 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.9 | 4 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 77 | 213 |
| 2024-25 | 4.5 | 0 | minus 4.5 goals above expected | 57 | 182 |
| 2023-24 | 3.4 | 1 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 51 | 119 |
| 2022-23 | 5.3 | 6 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 57 | 152 |
| 2021-22 | 5.5 | 3 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 62 | 137 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 20 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 14 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 23 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
213 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.