Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 381 game sample- PTS
- 34.7
- SOG
- 108.8
- G
- 8.8
- A
- 25.8
- PPP
- 3.8
- HIT
- 49.8
- BLK
- 106.1
- PIM
- 53.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 381 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 381 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 381 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.42
- G
- 0.11
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.32
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 0.60
- BLK
- 1.30
- PIM
- 0.65
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 8 | 24 | 32 | 0.45 | 93 | 21:04 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 0.36 | 91 | 19:03 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 0.42 | 88 | 21:09 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 0.41 | 102 | 19:58 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 11 | 35 | 46 | 0.58 | 158 | 23:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.25 | 12 | 18:33 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | @ MTL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 |
| Mar 24 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 |
| Mar 22 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:38 |
| Mar 21 | vs SEA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 |
| Mar 19 | vs NYR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:22 |
| Mar 17 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:40 |
| Mar 14 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 23:18 |
| Mar 12 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:06 |
| Mar 10 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:29 |
| Mar 9 | vs LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24:08 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.0 | 8 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 63 | 149 |
| 2024-25 | 6.1 | 6 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 57 | 133 |
| 2023-24 | 5.5 | 9 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 59 | 131 |
| 2022-23 | 5.8 | 7 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 69 | 146 |
| 2021-22 | 10.2 | 11 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 74 | 224 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7 goals, 21 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 19 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 23 assists, 28 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 23 assists, 29 points | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
149 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.