Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 393 game sample- PTS
- 27.2
- SOG
- 120.4
- G
- 16.0
- A
- 11.1
- PPP
- 0.6
- HIT
- 169.7
- BLK
- 46.1
- PIM
- 101.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 393 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 393 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 393 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.33
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.47
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.07
- BLK
- 0.56
- PIM
- 1.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 14 | 9 | 23 | 0.32 | 89 | 14:01 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 15 | 12 | 27 | 0.33 | 109 | 14:19 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 0.26 | 141 | 15:28 |
| 2022-23 | 69 | 21 | 11 | 32 | 0.46 | 164 | 16:58 |
| 2021-22 | 69 | 19 | 13 | 32 | 0.46 | 151 | 17:14 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.37 | 30 | 15:23 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 11 | 13:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11:09 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20:04 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:33 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:10 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:03 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14:29 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:26 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.2 | 14 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 60 | 139 |
| 2024-25 | 16.9 | 15 | minus 1.9 goals above expected | 68 | 167 |
| 2023-24 | 18.7 | 9 | minus 9.7 goals above expected | 68 | 224 |
| 2022-23 | 21.8 | 21 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 65 | 230 |
| 2021-22 | 21.6 | 19 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 63 | 226 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 12 assists, 26 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 16 goals, 11 assists, 27 points | 4 goals, 0 assists, 4 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 17 goals, 12 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
139 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.