Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 335 game sample- PTS
- 37.2
- SOG
- 123.0
- G
- 15.6
- A
- 21.6
- PPP
- 4.6
- HIT
- 30.1
- BLK
- 38.8
- PIM
- 17.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 335 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 335 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 335 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.19
- A
- 0.26
- SOG
- 1.50
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.36
- BLK
- 0.47
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 18 | 25 | 43 | 0.57 | 116 | 17:33 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 13 | 17 | 30 | 0.37 | 123 | 14:01 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0.17 | 108 | 12:48 |
| 2022-23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 16:46 |
| 2021-22 | 64 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.61 | 121 | 20:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.45 | 27 | 15:41 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.32 | 14 | 11:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 |
| Apr 12 | vs OTT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:13 |
| Apr 11 | @ DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 |
| Apr 9 | vs PIT | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:09 |
| Apr 7 | vs PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:05 |
| Apr 5 | @ MTL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 20:57 |
| Apr 4 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 |
| Apr 2 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:03 |
| Mar 31 | @ NYR | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:06 |
| Mar 29 | vs CHI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.8 | 18 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 67 | 190 |
| 2024-25 | 14.7 | 13 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 66 | 171 |
| 2023-24 | 10.9 | 4 | minus 6.9 goals above expected | 62 | 149 |
| 2022-23 | 0.8 | 0 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 2 | 5 |
| 2021-22 | 15.3 | 10 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 58 | 168 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 16 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 9 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
190 attempts · 18 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.