Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 392 game sample- PTS
- 57.8
- SOG
- 159.1
- G
- 22.8
- A
- 35.0
- PPP
- 15.7
- HIT
- 43.3
- BLK
- 36.7
- PIM
- 33.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 392 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 392 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 392 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.71
- G
- 0.28
- A
- 0.43
- SOG
- 1.94
- PPP
- 0.19
- HIT
- 0.52
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 20 | 28 | 48 | 0.59 | 142 | 17:56 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 20 | 37 | 57 | 0.75 | 145 | 19:02 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 27 | 36 | 63 | 0.79 | 207 | 19:49 |
| 2022-23 | 63 | 26 | 41 | 67 | 1.06 | 123 | 19:27 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 30 | 46 | 76 | 1.04 | 199 | 18:18 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1.14 | 14 | 20:35 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 0.92 | 22 | 18:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ UTA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:07 |
| Apr 11 | @ CHI | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 |
| Apr 9 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:10 |
| Apr 1 | @ LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Mar 30 | @ SJS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 |
| Mar 28 | vs TOR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:38 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.8 | 20 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 75 | 221 |
| 2024-25 | 24.1 | 20 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 70 | 219 |
| 2023-24 | 29.8 | 27 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 75 | 307 |
| 2022-23 | 16.5 | 26 | plus 9.5 goals above expected | 62 | 181 |
| 2021-22 | 23.2 | 30 | plus 6.8 goals above expected | 71 | 251 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 18 assists, 34 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 25 assists, 43 points | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 18 goals, 26 assists, 44 points | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 20 goals, 33 assists, 53 points | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points |
Shot locations
221 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.