Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 306 game sample- PTS
- 36.0
- SOG
- 114.7
- G
- 17.5
- A
- 18.5
- PPP
- 8.6
- HIT
- 32.0
- BLK
- 48.2
- PIM
- 21.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 306 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 306 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 306 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.40
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.38
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 62 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 0.44 | 74 | 13:13 |
| 2024-25 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 0.25 | 60 | 15:02 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 24 | 18 | 42 | 0.58 | 129 | 15:46 |
| 2022-23 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0.45 | 43 | 14:51 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 31 | 27 | 58 | 0.78 | 167 | 15:00 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 5 | 13:26 |
| 2022-23 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0.55 | 40 | 15:19 |
| 2021-22 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 6 | 12:43 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:46 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 |
| Mar 21 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:37 |
| Mar 19 | @ OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9:51 |
| Mar 17 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Mar 14 | vs CGY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:58 |
| Mar 7 | @ SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 |
| Mar 1 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Feb 3 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Feb 2 | @ WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11:34 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 1 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.4 | 12 | plus 3.6 goals above expected | 52 | 112 |
| 2024-25 | 7.3 | 7 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 38 | 89 |
| 2023-24 | 17.8 | 24 | plus 6.2 goals above expected | 62 | 182 |
| 2022-23 | 6.9 | 2 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 18 | 66 |
| 2021-22 | 23.7 | 31 | plus 7.3 goals above expected | 68 | 206 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 13 assists, 21 points | 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 11 assists, 30 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 15 assists, 37 points | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
112 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 1
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.