Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 420 game sample- PTS
- 40.7
- SOG
- 153.4
- G
- 16.4
- A
- 24.3
- PPP
- 14.6
- HIT
- 83.1
- BLK
- 36.7
- PIM
- 15.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 420 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 420 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 420 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.50
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 1.87
- PPP
- 0.18
- HIT
- 1.01
- BLK
- 0.45
- PIM
- 0.19
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.40 | 130 | 13:38 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 21 | 25 | 46 | 0.58 | 154 | 15:09 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 39 | 59 | 0.72 | 186 | 16:11 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 20 | 25 | 45 | 0.56 | 198 | 15:37 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 28 | 29 | 57 | 0.71 | 215 | 17:57 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 11:55 |
| 2022-23 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.57 | 36 | 17:34 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3 | vs MTLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:12 |
| May 1 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:24 |
| Apr 29 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14:47 |
| Apr 26 | @ MTLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 |
| Apr 15 | vs NYR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19:16 |
| Apr 13 | vs DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8:55 |
| Apr 11 | @ BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12:48 |
| Apr 9 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:46 |
| Apr 7 | @ OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15:01 |
| Apr 6 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.1 | 12 | minus 7.1 goals above expected | 74 | 203 |
| 2024-25 | 16.2 | 21 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 77 | 222 |
| 2023-24 | 18.4 | 20 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 80 | 298 |
| 2022-23 | 22.1 | 20 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 78 | 299 |
| 2021-22 | 27.2 | 28 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 78 | 312 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 15 assists, 18 points | 9 goals, 5 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 18 assists, 34 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 20 assists, 35 points | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points | 9 goals, 10 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
203 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.