Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 264 game sample- PTS
- 22.7
- SOG
- 134.0
- G
- 11.6
- A
- 11.1
- PPP
- 0.4
- HIT
- 108.4
- BLK
- 31.2
- PIM
- 65.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 264 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 264 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 264 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.28
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.13
- SOG
- 1.63
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.32
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 0.80
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 0.26 | 71 | 11:52 |
| 2024-25 | 37 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.22 | 60 | 11:21 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 0.35 | 167 | 13:41 |
| 2022-23 | 76 | 13 | 14 | 27 | 0.36 | 167 | 12:07 |
| 2021-22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 14:46 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 12:42 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 23 | 13:51 |
| 2022-23 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 12 | 10:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:56 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:54 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9:44 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:34 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 |
| Mar 26 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:47 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.1 | 8 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 45 | 102 |
| 2024-25 | 6.6 | 4 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 36 | 92 |
| 2023-24 | 17.7 | 9 | minus 8.7 goals above expected | 70 | 228 |
| 2022-23 | 14.4 | 13 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 68 | 226 |
| 2021-22 | 0.4 | 0 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 3 | 6 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
102 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.