Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 344 game sample- PTS
- 38.3
- SOG
- 113.0
- G
- 12.4
- A
- 25.9
- PPP
- 11.1
- HIT
- 26.2
- BLK
- 33.6
- PIM
- 17.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 344 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 344 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 344 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.38
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.31
- BLK
- 0.41
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 0.44 | 87 | 16:25 |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 0.47 | 115 | 14:25 |
| 2023-24 | 49 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 0.33 | 92 | 14:34 |
| 2022-23 | 49 | 13 | 26 | 39 | 0.80 | 105 | 16:33 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 0.76 | 149 | 16:16 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.67 | 13 | 12:25 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:28 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:33 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9:24 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8:49 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Mar 26 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.8 | 11 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 59 | 127 |
| 2024-25 | 11.8 | 10 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 70 | 168 |
| 2023-24 | 9.3 | 7 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 43 | 131 |
| 2022-23 | 10.3 | 13 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 47 | 147 |
| 2021-22 | 14.9 | 22 | plus 7.1 goals above expected | 71 | 215 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 19 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 8 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 5 goals, 4 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 32 assists, 50 points | 4 goals, 7 assists, 11 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
127 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.