Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 378 game sample- PTS
- 55.9
- SOG
- 161.2
- G
- 12.3
- A
- 43.6
- PPP
- 13.1
- HIT
- 10.2
- BLK
- 123.3
- PIM
- 27.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 378 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 378 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 378 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.68
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.53
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.16
- HIT
- 0.12
- BLK
- 1.51
- PIM
- 0.34
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 70 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.56 | 130 | 22:50 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 7 | 50 | 57 | 0.85 | 128 | 21:59 |
| 2023-24 | 47 | 5 | 37 | 42 | 0.89 | 105 | 22:05 |
| 2022-23 | 55 | 8 | 33 | 41 | 0.75 | 136 | 21:26 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 14 | 38 | 52 | 0.67 | 205 | 23:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 0.82 | 42 | 25:58 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.45 | 24 | 23:02 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 14 | 22:13 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 0.62 | 41 | 20:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 23:42 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 25:00 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 39:09 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28:30 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:00 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:31 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:32 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 25:32 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 27:22 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.7 | 10 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 66 | 198 |
| 2024-25 | 7.7 | 7 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 64 | 185 |
| 2023-24 | 5.4 | 5 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 44 | 156 |
| 2022-23 | 8.0 | 8 | plus 0.0 goals above expected | 54 | 181 |
| 2021-22 | 11.3 | 14 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 77 | 273 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 26 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 33 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 24 assists, 27 points | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 26 assists, 32 points | 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 27 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 11 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
198 attempts · 10 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.