Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 373 game sample- PTS
- 54.3
- SOG
- 161.5
- G
- 28.0
- A
- 26.3
- PPP
- 19.0
- HIT
- 68.8
- BLK
- 30.3
- PIM
- 49.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 373 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 373 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 373 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.32
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 0.84
- BLK
- 0.37
- PIM
- 0.60
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 32 | 26 | 58 | 0.73 | 164 | 18:27 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 23 | 23 | 46 | 0.56 | 131 | 16:00 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 0.54 | 160 | 16:03 |
| 2022-23 | 50 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 0.60 | 107 | 16:29 |
| 2021-22 | 68 | 30 | 32 | 62 | 0.91 | 180 | 19:52 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 21 | 18:35 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1.43 | 21 | 17:55 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:51 |
| Apr 13 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 |
| Apr 11 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:30 |
| Apr 9 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:33 |
| Apr 6 | @ SJS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Apr 4 | @ SEA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:46 |
| Apr 2 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 |
| Mar 31 | vs WPG | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 |
| Mar 29 | @ NJD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Mar 27 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 29.0 | 32 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 77 | 250 |
| 2024-25 | 21.5 | 23 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 73 | 213 |
| 2023-24 | 23.5 | 21 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 74 | 239 |
| 2022-23 | 11.2 | 8 | minus 3.2 goals above expected | 45 | 145 |
| 2021-22 | 27.6 | 30 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 66 | 246 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points | 11 goals, 10 assists, 21 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 13 assists, 26 points | 10 goals, 10 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 21 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 4 goals, 16 assists, 20 points | 4 goals, 6 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 23 goals, 23 assists, 46 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
250 attempts · 32 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.