Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 289 game sample- PTS
- 43.8
- SOG
- 113.0
- G
- 10.3
- A
- 33.5
- PPP
- 13.8
- HIT
- 31.3
- BLK
- 36.1
- PIM
- 23.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 289 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 289 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 289 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.13
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 1.38
- PPP
- 0.17
- HIT
- 0.37
- BLK
- 0.44
- PIM
- 0.28
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 4 | 20 | 24 | 0.38 | 86 | 16:52 |
| 2024-25 | 43 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 0.86 | 56 | 18:11 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 19 | 37 | 56 | 0.71 | 127 | 18:11 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 2 | 27 | 29 | 0.49 | 69 | 14:40 |
| 2021-22 | 34 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.59 | 62 | 17:06 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.43 | 9 | 14:37 |
| 2023-24 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.00 | 4 | 24:16 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 |
| Apr 13 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 |
| Apr 7 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:43 |
| Apr 5 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:12 |
| Apr 3 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:14 |
| Mar 21 | @ VAN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 |
| Mar 18 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Mar 10 | vs NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 |
| Mar 8 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 |
| Mar 5 | @ LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:56 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.1 | 4 | minus 9.1 goals above expected | 58 | 139 |
| 2024-25 | 8.8 | 11 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 38 | 87 |
| 2023-24 | 16.5 | 19 | plus 2.5 goals above expected | 71 | 184 |
| 2022-23 | 8.0 | 2 | minus 6.0 goals above expected | 38 | 90 |
| 2021-22 | 6.4 | 6 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 30 | 87 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 15 assists, 18 points | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 14 goals, 23 assists, 37 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 2 goals, 18 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 9 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 10 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
139 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.