Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 355 game sample- PTS
- 45.7
- SOG
- 159.3
- G
- 11.3
- A
- 34.4
- PPP
- 20.8
- HIT
- 102.9
- BLK
- 123.0
- PIM
- 31.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 355 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 355 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 355 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 1.95
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 1.26
- BLK
- 1.50
- PIM
- 0.38
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 0.62 | 88 | 23:42 |
| 2024-25 | 63 | 9 | 27 | 36 | 0.57 | 129 | 24:38 |
| 2023-24 | 67 | 8 | 23 | 31 | 0.46 | 172 | 25:29 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 0.51 | 178 | 24:27 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 5 | 46 | 51 | 0.65 | 194 | 26:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.39 | 29 | 25:30 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 29:27 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:50 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:43 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 26:39 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25:20 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:00 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25:21 |
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:53 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:07 |
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.8 | 7 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 47 | 149 |
| 2024-25 | 6.8 | 9 | plus 2.2 goals above expected | 60 | 191 |
| 2023-24 | 8.6 | 8 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 65 | 238 |
| 2022-23 | 10.4 | 12 | plus 1.6 goals above expected | 70 | 242 |
| 2021-22 | 10.8 | 5 | minus 5.8 goals above expected | 75 | 255 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 4 goals, 13 assists, 17 points | 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 17 assists, 22 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 26 assists, 31 points | 0 goals, 19 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
149 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.