Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 310 game sample- PTS
- 50.7
- SOG
- 155.5
- G
- 18.4
- A
- 32.2
- PPP
- 14.2
- HIT
- 46.0
- BLK
- 40.2
- PIM
- 17.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 310 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 310 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 310 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.62
- G
- 0.23
- A
- 0.39
- SOG
- 1.90
- PPP
- 0.17
- HIT
- 0.56
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.21
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 0.46 | 131 | 17:07 |
| 2024-25 | 54 | 19 | 38 | 57 | 1.06 | 128 | 19:01 |
| 2023-24 | 83 | 26 | 33 | 59 | 0.71 | 171 | 18:05 |
| 2022-23 | 25 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.68 | 55 | 17:22 |
| 2021-22 | 65 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 0.35 | 111 | 14:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 13 | 18:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.6 | 13 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 66 | 175 |
| 2024-25 | 18.5 | 19 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 51 | 174 |
| 2023-24 | 25.1 | 26 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 77 | 236 |
| 2022-23 | 7.6 | 6 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 22 | 70 |
| 2021-22 | 13.6 | 8 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 60 | 151 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 14 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 13 goals, 28 assists, 41 points | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 21 assists, 36 points | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
175 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.