Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 439 game sample- PTS
- 40.3
- SOG
- 124.3
- G
- 12.0
- A
- 28.4
- PPP
- 7.6
- HIT
- 41.7
- BLK
- 31.7
- PIM
- 100.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 439 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 439 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 439 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 1.51
- PPP
- 0.09
- HIT
- 0.50
- BLK
- 0.38
- PIM
- 1.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 0.45 | 118 | 14:53 |
| 2024-25 | 74 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 0.45 | 93 | 14:10 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 9 | 38 | 47 | 0.59 | 137 | 13:47 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 20 | 36 | 56 | 0.70 | 179 | 17:46 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 0.54 | 104 | 13:02 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.54 | 19 | 13:07 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.57 | 17 | 16:57 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 0.68 | 34 | 14:50 |
| 2021-22 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.43 | 21 | 10:29 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:05 |
| Apr 13 | vs DAL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 |
| Apr 11 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 |
| Apr 9 | @ NYI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 |
| Apr 8 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 17:35 |
| Apr 4 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14:19 |
| Apr 2 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Mar 30 | @ ANA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7:06 |
| Mar 28 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Mar 25 | vs NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.3 | 12 | minus 0.3 goals above expected | 68 | 171 |
| 2024-25 | 10.3 | 8 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 63 | 136 |
| 2023-24 | 12.4 | 9 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 76 | 190 |
| 2022-23 | 22.1 | 20 | minus 2.1 goals above expected | 74 | 243 |
| 2021-22 | 11.9 | 11 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 67 | 145 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 37 assists, 45 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 25 assists, 37 points | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 24 assists, 35 points | 0 goals, 4 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
171 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.