Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 415 game sample- PTS
- 61.1
- SOG
- 167.5
- G
- 13.9
- A
- 47.2
- PPP
- 19.5
- HIT
- 59.9
- BLK
- 120.7
- PIM
- 33.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 415 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 415 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 415 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.75
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.58
- SOG
- 2.05
- PPP
- 0.24
- HIT
- 0.73
- BLK
- 1.48
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 14 | 41 | 55 | 0.71 | 146 | 24:43 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 14 | 48 | 62 | 0.78 | 172 | 24:23 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 10 | 59 | 69 | 0.85 | 196 | 24:11 |
| 2022-23 | 78 | 16 | 60 | 76 | 0.97 | 172 | 24:14 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 0.47 | 173 | 23:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.50 | 19 | 21:08 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.80 | 12 | 24:35 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 5 | 16:36 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21:36 |
| Apr 14 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:50 |
| Apr 13 | @ VGK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26:40 |
| Apr 11 | vs PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24:25 |
| Apr 9 | @ STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22:16 |
| Apr 6 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 |
| Apr 4 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:23 |
| Apr 2 | @ DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27:52 |
| Mar 31 | @ CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 |
| Mar 28 | @ COL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:25 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8.5 | 14 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 72 | 225 |
| 2024-25 | 9.4 | 14 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 77 | 272 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 10 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 78 | 292 |
| 2022-23 | 13.3 | 16 | plus 2.7 goals above expected | 75 | 265 |
| 2021-22 | 13.3 | 12 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 73 | 251 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 27 assists, 39 points | 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 3 goals, 19 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 43 assists, 51 points | 2 goals, 16 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 35 assists, 49 points | 2 goals, 25 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 16 assists, 21 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
225 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.