Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 287 game sample- PTS
- 55.9
- SOG
- 144.3
- G
- 28.2
- A
- 27.7
- PPP
- 10.6
- HIT
- 69.0
- BLK
- 40.2
- PIM
- 53.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 287 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 287 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 287 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.68
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 1.76
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 0.84
- BLK
- 0.49
- PIM
- 0.65
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 33 | 31 | 64 | 0.79 | 152 | 15:11 |
| 2024-25 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.54 | 15 | 13:54 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 23 | 21 | 44 | 0.59 | 113 | 14:13 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 0.40 | 119 | 14:13 |
| 2021-22 | 37 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 0.62 | 82 | 15:10 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 8 | 13:38 |
| 2023-24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 13:36 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.67 | 16 | 17:12 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:21 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:28 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:11 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12:28 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 12:44 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13:38 |
| Apr 14 | @ STL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:23 |
| Apr 11 | vs WSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:02 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.1 | 33 | plus 14.9 goals above expected | 77 | 209 |
| 2024-25 | 2.0 | 4 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 11 | 28 |
| 2023-24 | 13.5 | 23 | plus 9.5 goals above expected | 62 | 163 |
| 2022-23 | 13.4 | 11 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 58 | 155 |
| 2021-22 | 8.8 | 9 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 32 | 104 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 26 goals, 25 assists, 51 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 20 goals, 16 assists, 36 points | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
209 attempts · 33 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.