Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 384 game sample- PTS
- 36.8
- SOG
- 138.7
- G
- 6.7
- A
- 30.1
- PPP
- 9.9
- HIT
- 124.0
- BLK
- 110.0
- PIM
- 73.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 384 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 384 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 384 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.37
- SOG
- 1.69
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 1.51
- BLK
- 1.34
- PIM
- 0.90
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 72 | 4 | 22 | 26 | 0.36 | 97 | 22:29 |
| 2024-25 | 56 | 3 | 30 | 33 | 0.59 | 106 | 23:31 |
| 2023-24 | 51 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 0.35 | 98 | 20:52 |
| 2022-23 | 71 | 14 | 24 | 38 | 0.54 | 216 | 23:23 |
| 2021-22 | 61 | 15 | 42 | 57 | 0.93 | 180 | 24:55 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.68 | 36 | 24:00 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.25 | 33 | 22:33 |
| 2022-23 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.40 | 26 | 23:57 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.50 | 23 | 23:51 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:14 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24:07 |
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21:54 |
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:54 |
| Mar 19 | @ EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 |
| Mar 17 | @ VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:29 |
| Mar 15 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22:46 |
| Mar 12 | vs CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.7 | 4 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 65 | 155 |
| 2024-25 | 5.7 | 3 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 52 | 178 |
| 2023-24 | 6.2 | 4 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 49 | 151 |
| 2022-23 | 15.4 | 14 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 66 | 282 |
| 2021-22 | 11.6 | 15 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 58 | 233 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 11 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 3 goals, 17 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points |
Shot locations
155 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.