Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 372 game sample- PTS
- 71.2
- SOG
- 212.9
- G
- 27.9
- A
- 43.3
- PPP
- 23.7
- HIT
- 37.4
- BLK
- 30.6
- PIM
- 19.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 372 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 372 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 372 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.87
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.53
- SOG
- 2.60
- PPP
- 0.29
- HIT
- 0.45
- BLK
- 0.37
- PIM
- 0.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 26 | 45 | 71 | 0.87 | 207 | 16:36 |
| 2024-25 | 69 | 24 | 39 | 63 | 0.91 | 174 | 15:47 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 25 | 36 | 61 | 0.74 | 233 | 15:52 |
| 2022-23 | 45 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 0.84 | 132 | 15:39 |
| 2021-22 | 62 | 28 | 27 | 55 | 0.89 | 245 | 18:04 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 1.00 | 39 | 18:52 |
| 2024-25 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.88 | 31 | 17:17 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 14 | 15:52 |
| 2022-23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 21:10 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 |
| Jun 11 | vs VGKPO | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:47 |
| Jun 9 | @ VGKPO | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 |
| Jun 6 | @ VGKPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 |
| Jun 4 | vs VGKPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Jun 2 | vs VGKPO | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 |
| May 29 | vs MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:20 |
| May 27 | @ MTLPO | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:05 |
| May 25 | @ MTLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 |
| May 23 | vs MTLPO | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 20.1 | 26 | plus 5.9 goals above expected | 80 | 313 |
| 2024-25 | 20.3 | 24 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 66 | 280 |
| 2023-24 | 20.6 | 25 | plus 4.4 goals above expected | 82 | 341 |
| 2022-23 | 14.6 | 12 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 45 | 207 |
| 2021-22 | 26.2 | 28 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 62 | 341 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 26 assists, 43 points | 9 goals, 19 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 17 goals, 23 assists, 40 points | 7 goals, 16 assists, 23 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 29 assists, 54 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 24 goals, 22 assists, 46 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
313 attempts · 26 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.