Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 375 game sample- PTS
- 62.5
- SOG
- 199.5
- G
- 28.6
- A
- 33.9
- PPP
- 19.0
- HIT
- 56.5
- BLK
- 40.0
- PIM
- 20.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 375 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 375 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 375 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.76
- G
- 0.35
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 2.44
- PPP
- 0.23
- HIT
- 0.69
- BLK
- 0.48
- PIM
- 0.25
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 52 | 20 | 20 | 40 | 0.77 | 117 | 16:26 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 0.74 | 202 | 17:13 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 29 | 33 | 62 | 0.78 | 216 | 16:46 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 40 | 30 | 70 | 0.89 | 210 | 16:20 |
| 2021-22 | 74 | 27 | 23 | 50 | 0.68 | 199 | 16:08 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 22 | 14:32 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11 | vs CGY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 9 | vs VGK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 |
| Apr 7 | @ MIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 |
| Apr 6 | @ WPG | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 |
| Apr 4 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:30 |
| Apr 2 | vs UTA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 |
| Mar 31 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 |
| Mar 28 | @ BUF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
| Mar 19 | @ NSH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 |
| Mar 17 | vs TBL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.8 | 20 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 50 | 178 |
| 2024-25 | 22.7 | 22 | minus 0.7 goals above expected | 77 | 312 |
| 2023-24 | 23.5 | 29 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 77 | 318 |
| 2022-23 | 19.2 | 40 | plus 20.8 goals above expected | 76 | 287 |
| 2021-22 | 22.5 | 27 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 72 | 286 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points | 7 goals, 6 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 18 goals, 26 assists, 44 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 19 assists, 37 points | 9 goals, 14 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 30 goals, 21 assists, 51 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 14 assists, 32 points | 8 goals, 9 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
178 attempts · 20 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.