Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 471 game sample- PTS
- 55.4
- SOG
- 129.7
- G
- 22.2
- A
- 33.2
- PPP
- 4.7
- HIT
- 184.6
- BLK
- 39.5
- PIM
- 22.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 471 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 471 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 471 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.68
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.41
- SOG
- 1.58
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 2.26
- BLK
- 0.48
- PIM
- 0.27
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 23 | 38 | 61 | 0.74 | 133 | 16:14 |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 23 | 28 | 51 | 0.73 | 111 | 16:48 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 19 | 26 | 45 | 0.55 | 122 | 16:07 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 16 | 29 | 45 | 0.55 | 126 | 16:46 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 26 | 34 | 60 | 0.74 | 111 | 16:26 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 0.64 | 38 | 17:05 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 | 14 | 17:30 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.57 | 8 | 14:54 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 0.82 | 32 | 15:34 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 13 | 13:26 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23:25 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:55 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:36 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15:57 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:25 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.5 | 23 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 76 | 202 |
| 2024-25 | 17.8 | 23 | plus 5.2 goals above expected | 61 | 180 |
| 2023-24 | 18.2 | 19 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 71 | 180 |
| 2022-23 | 19.8 | 16 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 75 | 177 |
| 2021-22 | 16.8 | 26 | plus 9.2 goals above expected | 68 | 150 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 goals, 34 assists, 55 points | 2 goals, 4 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 27 assists, 48 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 24 assists, 40 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 14 goals, 26 assists, 40 points | 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 21 goals, 28 assists, 49 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
Shot locations
202 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.