Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 438 game sample- PTS
- 30.9
- SOG
- 160.9
- G
- 17.6
- A
- 13.3
- PPP
- 1.6
- HIT
- 94.9
- BLK
- 29.3
- PIM
- 28.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 438 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 438 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 438 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.97
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.16
- BLK
- 0.35
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 0.25 | 105 | 13:46 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 24 | 22 | 46 | 0.56 | 199 | 16:10 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 21 | 41 | 0.50 | 201 | 13:59 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 0.42 | 126 | 12:42 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | 0.32 | 142 | 12:37 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 13:02 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 25 | 18:41 |
| 2023-24 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.36 | 36 | 12:02 |
| 2022-23 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.25 | 27 | 11:52 |
| 2021-22 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 14 | 9:35 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:06 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 |
| Apr 15 | vs TOR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:11 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:01 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:18 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:45 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.3 | 13 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 66 | 178 |
| 2024-25 | 24.5 | 23 | minus 1.5 goals above expected | 81 | 296 |
| 2023-24 | 24.2 | 20 | minus 4.2 goals above expected | 80 | 291 |
| 2022-23 | 18.2 | 13 | minus 5.2 goals above expected | 65 | 184 |
| 2021-22 | 16.7 | 12 | minus 4.7 goals above expected | 72 | 191 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 4 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 22 goals, 21 assists, 43 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 20 assists, 38 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 13 assists, 23 points | 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
178 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.