Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 379 game sample- PTS
- 32.4
- SOG
- 101.4
- G
- 14.4
- A
- 18.0
- PPP
- 1.2
- HIT
- 106.6
- BLK
- 48.3
- PIM
- 19.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 379 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 379 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 379 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.18
- A
- 0.22
- SOG
- 1.23
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 1.30
- BLK
- 0.59
- PIM
- 0.24
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 0.43 | 96 | 16:07 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 0.38 | 85 | 14:06 |
| 2023-24 | 73 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 0.37 | 117 | 13:23 |
| 2022-23 | 67 | 16 | 11 | 27 | 0.40 | 99 | 12:13 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 0.32 | 64 | 12:10 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 16:53 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 5 | 16:32 |
| 2023-24 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 4 | 11:22 |
| 2022-23 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.63 | 19 | 12:06 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12:15 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:29 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:43 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:07 |
| Apr 12 | @ NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:31 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:52 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Apr 7 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 |
| Apr 5 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Apr 4 | vs MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14.1 | 15 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 71 | 150 |
| 2024-25 | 11.5 | 11 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 57 | 127 |
| 2023-24 | 12.9 | 14 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 66 | 150 |
| 2022-23 | 11.3 | 16 | plus 4.7 goals above expected | 54 | 127 |
| 2021-22 | 6.5 | 11 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 42 | 83 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 7 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
150 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.