Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 327 game sample- PTS
- 54.1
- SOG
- 207.1
- G
- 25.3
- A
- 28.8
- PPP
- 9.8
- HIT
- 36.8
- BLK
- 41.5
- PIM
- 28.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 327 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 327 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 327 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.66
- G
- 0.31
- A
- 0.35
- SOG
- 2.53
- PPP
- 0.12
- HIT
- 0.44
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.35
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 25 | 29 | 54 | 0.78 | 175 | 14:36 |
| 2024-25 | 67 | 15 | 12 | 27 | 0.40 | 158 | 15:00 |
| 2023-24 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0.83 | 59 | 16:41 |
| 2022-23 | 77 | 26 | 33 | 59 | 0.77 | 228 | 17:06 |
| 2021-22 | 66 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 0.74 | 227 | 16:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 11 | 11:21 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.47 | 24 | 11:37 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.60 | 11 | 18:15 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1.17 | 22 | 20:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:45 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:01 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:54 |
| Apr 5 | @ PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 |
| Apr 4 | @ TBL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:57 |
| Apr 2 | @ FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:37 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 23.1 | 25 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 67 | 270 |
| 2024-25 | 16.4 | 15 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 65 | 223 |
| 2023-24 | 6.1 | 6 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 17 | 81 |
| 2022-23 | 26.9 | 26 | minus 0.9 goals above expected | 77 | 314 |
| 2021-22 | 25.7 | 20 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 65 | 324 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 21 goals, 24 assists, 45 points | 4 goals, 5 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 10 assists, 24 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points | 10 goals, 15 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 16 goals, 25 assists, 41 points | 4 goals, 4 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
270 attempts · 25 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.