Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 471 game sample- PTS
- 31.7
- SOG
- 149.0
- G
- 6.6
- A
- 25.1
- PPP
- 2.1
- HIT
- 76.6
- BLK
- 100.9
- PIM
- 39.5
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 471 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 471 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 471 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.31
- SOG
- 1.82
- PPP
- 0.03
- HIT
- 0.93
- BLK
- 1.23
- PIM
- 0.48
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 80 | 2 | 26 | 28 | 0.35 | 112 | 22:38 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.39 | 195 | 22:57 |
| 2023-24 | 79 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.49 | 160 | 22:08 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 0.50 | 209 | 23:26 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 0.51 | 145 | 20:56 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.22 | 31 | 23:17 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0.54 | 51 | 23:25 |
| 2022-23 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.38 | 36 | 26:01 |
| 2021-22 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.30 | 21 | 21:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:58 |
| Apr 11 | @ TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:54 |
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 27:05 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:24 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:21 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:17 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27:13 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24:26 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:26 |
| Mar 28 | @ NYI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 21:25 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4.6 | 2 | minus 2.6 goals above expected | 69 | 168 |
| 2024-25 | 8.4 | 11 | plus 2.6 goals above expected | 78 | 273 |
| 2023-24 | 6.8 | 10 | plus 3.2 goals above expected | 74 | 221 |
| 2022-23 | 9.3 | 13 | plus 3.7 goals above expected | 79 | 275 |
| 2021-22 | 9.1 | 10 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 67 | 192 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 goals, 24 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 28 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 10 goals, 27 assists, 37 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
168 attempts · 2 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.