Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 341 game sample- PTS
- 35.5
- SOG
- 152.6
- G
- 16.7
- A
- 18.8
- PPP
- 9.3
- HIT
- 27.8
- BLK
- 22.0
- PIM
- 9.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 341 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 341 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 341 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.23
- SOG
- 1.86
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.33
- BLK
- 0.26
- PIM
- 0.12
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 0.40 | 147 | 13:34 |
| 2024-25 | 56 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 0.52 | 109 | 14:30 |
| 2023-24 | 51 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.29 | 66 | 11:34 |
| 2022-23 | 75 | 28 | 12 | 40 | 0.53 | 161 | 14:22 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 20 | 29 | 49 | 0.68 | 164 | 15:23 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.44 | 14 | 14:22 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 |
| Apr 14 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Apr 12 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 |
| Apr 9 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 |
| Apr 4 | @ ANA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 |
| Apr 2 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Mar 30 | @ COL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 |
| Mar 28 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:43 |
| Mar 26 | vs ANA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Mar 24 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:09 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 4 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.1 | 13 | minus 4.1 goals above expected | 71 | 201 |
| 2024-25 | 11.5 | 15 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 47 | 155 |
| 2023-24 | 5.6 | 6 | plus 0.4 goals above expected | 44 | 96 |
| 2022-23 | 17.9 | 28 | plus 10.2 goals above expected | 68 | 209 |
| 2021-22 | 16.5 | 20 | plus 3.5 goals above expected | 68 | 223 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 13 assists, 24 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 6 goals, 2 assists, 8 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 7 assists, 28 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 23 assists, 36 points | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
201 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 4
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.