Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 382 game sample- PTS
- 32.2
- SOG
- 87.6
- G
- 11.8
- A
- 20.4
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 113.1
- BLK
- 61.5
- PIM
- 33.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 382 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 382 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 382 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.39
- G
- 0.14
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 1.07
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.38
- BLK
- 0.75
- PIM
- 0.41
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 0.35 | 75 | 15:22 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 0.44 | 80 | 15:33 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 0.34 | 81 | 16:01 |
| 2022-23 | 54 | 2 | 17 | 19 | 0.35 | 55 | 14:29 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0.40 | 124 | 15:36 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0.53 | 21 | 16:56 |
| 2024-25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 4 | 15:30 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 |
| May 27 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 |
| May 25 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21:39 |
| May 23 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:47 |
| May 21 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:06 |
| May 18 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 |
| May 16 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16:13 |
| May 14 | @ BUFPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:50 |
| May 12 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:47 |
| May 10 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.0 | 12 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 50 | 117 |
| 2024-25 | 14.4 | 13 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 61 | 127 |
| 2023-24 | 9.0 | 7 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 58 | 123 |
| 2022-23 | 6.3 | 2 | minus 4.3 goals above expected | 39 | 72 |
| 2021-22 | 13.5 | 13 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 63 | 155 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 12 assists, 22 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 21 assists, 27 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 15 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 13 goals, 15 assists, 28 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
117 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.