Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 445 game sample- PTS
- 36.3
- SOG
- 151.5
- G
- 6.5
- A
- 29.8
- PPP
- 8.3
- HIT
- 54.7
- BLK
- 130.2
- PIM
- 16.7
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 445 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 445 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 445 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.44
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 1.85
- PPP
- 0.10
- HIT
- 0.66
- BLK
- 1.59
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 3 | 25 | 28 | 0.39 | 135 | 22:36 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 0.49 | 145 | 21:33 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 13 | 34 | 47 | 0.59 | 164 | 23:37 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 0.47 | 176 | 22:38 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 10 | 38 | 48 | 0.59 | 189 | 21:18 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0.32 | 25 | 23:04 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.45 | 26 | 23:04 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.71 | 12 | 23:43 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 38 | 23:04 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:33 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:20 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20:53 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24:15 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 21:15 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 23:17 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:01 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.8 | 3 | minus 2.8 goals above expected | 63 | 197 |
| 2024-25 | 6.7 | 10 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 72 | 207 |
| 2023-24 | 10.1 | 13 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 77 | 268 |
| 2022-23 | 9.3 | 7 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 76 | 258 |
| 2021-22 | 9.3 | 10 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 81 | 280 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 18 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 21 assists, 29 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 24 assists, 32 points | 5 goals, 8 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 23 assists, 29 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 25 assists, 34 points | 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
197 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.