Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 435 game sample- PTS
- 40.3
- SOG
- 166.8
- G
- 12.2
- A
- 28.1
- PPP
- 10.7
- HIT
- 38.6
- BLK
- 163.3
- PIM
- 62.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 435 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 435 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 435 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.49
- G
- 0.15
- A
- 0.34
- SOG
- 2.04
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 0.47
- BLK
- 2.00
- PIM
- 0.77
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 17 | 30 | 47 | 0.58 | 178 | 23:12 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.38 | 163 | 23:59 |
| 2023-24 | 78 | 9 | 30 | 39 | 0.50 | 159 | 23:50 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 0.62 | 159 | 24:05 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 4 | 46 | 50 | 0.61 | 152 | 22:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.27 | 34 | 23:26 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.50 | 23 | 21:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19:11 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:52 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 21:35 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30:56 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21:00 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:18 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:31 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 21:06 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:41 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:32 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12.7 | 17 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 77 | 276 |
| 2024-25 | 9.0 | 11 | plus 2.0 goals above expected | 79 | 258 |
| 2023-24 | 9.0 | 9 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 74 | 238 |
| 2022-23 | 9.5 | 11 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 73 | 223 |
| 2021-22 | 9.5 | 4 | minus 5.5 goals above expected | 80 | 214 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 10 goals, 23 assists, 33 points | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 22 assists, 30 points | 0 goals, 8 assists, 8 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 20 assists, 21 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 28 assists, 30 points | 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
276 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.