Fri, Sep 18, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Erik Cernak

TBL·D#81

vsPIT

Latest captured market

Apr 2 · 7:00 PM ET

Projected · remaining schedule

82 team games · 372 game sample

PTS: 17.3
SOG: 75.8
G: 3.5

A: 13.8
PPP: 0.1
HIT: 178.5
BLK: 123.3
PIM: 75.3

Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 372 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.

Among defencemen · 508 ranked

Production

Points

Goals

Assists

Shots

PP Points

Style & role

Hits

Blocks

PIM

Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 372 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.

Observed rates

per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 372 games incl. playoffs

PTS: 0.21
G: 0.04
A: 0.17
SOG: 0.92
PPP: 0.00
HIT: 2.18
BLK: 1.51
PIM: 0.92

Season totals

regular season

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	61	3	8	11	0.18	53	17:37
2024-25	76	3	18	21	0.28	64	18:16
2023-24	69	2	11	13	0.19	53	19:11
2022-23	70	2	14	16	0.23	87	19:14
2021-22	55	1	12	13	0.24	86	19:09

Playoffs

postseason only

Season	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	SOG	TOI
2025-26	7	0	1	1	0.14	6	19:28
2024-25	5	1	0	1	0.20	14	17:56
2023-24	5	0	1	1	0.20	2	20:39
2022-23	1	0	0	0	0.00	1	9:27
2021-22	23	1	1	2	0.09	22	19:20

Last 10 · game log

cleared the Apr 2 lineG 1/10PPP 0/10

Date	Opp	SOG	G	A	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI
May 3	vs MTLPO	0	0	0	0	1	0	17:18
May 1	@ MTLPO	2	0	0	3	1	0	23:10
Apr 29	vs MTLPO	1	0	0	0	2	0	15:56
Apr 26	@ MTLPO	0	0	0	2	1	0	19:37
Apr 24	@ MTLPO	1	0	0	0	3	2	17:54
Apr 21	vs MTLPO	1	0	1	3	2	0	21:26
Apr 19	vs MTLPO	1	0	0	4	1	0	20:53
Apr 15	vs NYR	1	0	0	0	2	0	15:53
Apr 13	vs DET	2	1	0	1	2	0	19:42
Apr 11	@ BOS	0	0	0	3	2	0	13:37

One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.

Finishing — goals above expected

open play, regular season

Season	xG	G	GAx	GP	Att
2025-26	2.6	3	plus 0.4 goals above expected	48	80
2024-25	3.7	3	minus 0.7 goals above expected	59	112
2023-24	2.1	2	minus 0.1 goals above expected	41	76
2022-23	4.4	2	minus 2.4 goals above expected	60	120
2021-22	3.7	1	minus 2.7 goals above expected	47	127

Production by strength

G-A-P, regular season

Season	Even strength	Power play	Shorthanded
2025-26	3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points	0-0-0	0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
2024-25	3 goals, 16 assists, 19 points	0-0-0	0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points
2023-24	2 goals, 11 assists, 13 points	0-0-0	0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points
2022-23	1 goal, 13 assists, 14 points	0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points	1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
2021-22	1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points	0-0-0	0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points

Shot locations

80 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26

Missed the net (27)Shot on goal (50)Goal (3)

Markets · Apr 2

modeled projections

Anytime goal

Line

0.5

Proj

0.1

P(over)

Assists

No line posted.

PPP

Power-play points

Line

0.5

Proj

0.0

P(over)

HITS

Hits

No line posted.

BLK

Blocked shots

No line posted.

PIM

Penalty minutes

No line posted.

Per-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.