Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 304 game sample- PTS
- 25.7
- SOG
- 97.0
- G
- 12.7
- A
- 12.9
- PPP
- 0.7
- HIT
- 207.5
- BLK
- 32.0
- PIM
- 115.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 304 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 304 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 304 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.31
- G
- 0.16
- A
- 0.16
- SOG
- 1.18
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.54
- BLK
- 0.39
- PIM
- 1.42
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 78 | 17 | 15 | 32 | 0.41 | 104 | 12:26 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.21 | 86 | 9:35 |
| 2023-24 | 59 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0.20 | 57 | 8:50 |
| 2022-23 | 61 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.20 | 66 | 9:07 |
| 2021-22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 14 | 7:51 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 12 | 7:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DET | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Apr 13 | vs NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 |
| Apr 11 | @ TOR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 |
| Apr 9 | @ OTT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:54 |
| Apr 7 | @ MTL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 |
| Apr 5 | @ PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:51 |
| Apr 4 | @ PIT | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Apr 2 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:37 |
| Mar 31 | vs OTT | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 |
| Mar 29 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16:42 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17.5 | 17 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 64 | 171 |
| 2024-25 | 9.5 | 6 | minus 3.5 goals above expected | 58 | 124 |
| 2023-24 | 6.5 | 6 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 40 | 79 |
| 2022-23 | 7.5 | 5 | minus 2.5 goals above expected | 44 | 85 |
| 2021-22 | 1.4 | 1 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 5 | 16 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16 goals, 15 assists, 31 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
171 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.