Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 297 game sample- PTS
- 41.5
- SOG
- 130.0
- G
- 16.8
- A
- 24.7
- PPP
- 8.8
- HIT
- 14.8
- BLK
- 34.9
- PIM
- 16.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 297 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 297 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 297 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.51
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 1.59
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 0.17
- BLK
- 0.42
- PIM
- 0.20
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 16 | 26 | 42 | 0.51 | 130 | 14:17 |
| 2024-25 | 54 | 13 | 9 | 22 | 0.41 | 92 | 13:14 |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 18 | 27 | 45 | 0.63 | 113 | 14:12 |
| 2022-23 | 51 | 17 | 26 | 43 | 0.84 | 93 | 14:39 |
| 2021-22 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.26 | 25 | 11:47 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 7 | 13:58 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 10:32 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 | @ PHIPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Apr 27 | vs PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 |
| Apr 25 | @ PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13:02 |
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 |
| Apr 20 | vs PHIPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 |
| Apr 18 | vs PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 |
| Apr 14 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:29 |
| Apr 11 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.4 | 16 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 76 | 200 |
| 2024-25 | 10.6 | 13 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 48 | 124 |
| 2023-24 | 14.1 | 18 | plus 3.9 goals above expected | 65 | 181 |
| 2022-23 | 10.7 | 17 | plus 6.3 goals above expected | 45 | 121 |
| 2021-22 | 2.2 | 1 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 19 | 37 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 24 assists, 35 points | 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 5 assists, 17 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 12 goals, 21 assists, 33 points | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 19 assists, 31 points | 5 goals, 7 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
200 attempts · 16 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.