Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 388 game sample- PTS
- 56.9
- SOG
- 181.1
- G
- 27.3
- A
- 29.6
- PPP
- 21.1
- HIT
- 63.9
- BLK
- 32.0
- PIM
- 14.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 388 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 388 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 388 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.70
- G
- 0.33
- A
- 0.36
- SOG
- 2.21
- PPP
- 0.26
- HIT
- 0.78
- BLK
- 0.39
- PIM
- 0.17
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 22 | 26 | 48 | 0.64 | 166 | 19:03 |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 25 | 25 | 50 | 0.67 | 145 | 18:10 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 40 | 33 | 73 | 0.90 | 204 | 18:36 |
| 2022-23 | 74 | 18 | 37 | 55 | 0.74 | 178 | 17:14 |
| 2021-22 | 71 | 23 | 23 | 46 | 0.65 | 195 | 18:36 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 1.00 | 27 | 20:19 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:00 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:30 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17:36 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22.5 | 22 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 71 | 243 |
| 2024-25 | 20.4 | 25 | plus 4.6 goals above expected | 72 | 225 |
| 2023-24 | 33.5 | 40 | plus 6.5 goals above expected | 77 | 294 |
| 2022-23 | 23.3 | 18 | minus 5.3 goals above expected | 70 | 242 |
| 2021-22 | 24.0 | 23 | minus 1.0 goals above expected | 66 | 285 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 14 assists, 30 points | 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 25 goals, 23 assists, 48 points | 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 12 goals, 28 assists, 40 points | 6 goals, 9 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 11 goals, 6 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
243 attempts · 22 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.