Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 333 game sample- PTS
- 71.5
- SOG
- 199.0
- G
- 19.7
- A
- 51.8
- PPP
- 20.3
- HIT
- 39.4
- BLK
- 51.6
- PIM
- 48.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 333 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 333 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 333 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.87
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.63
- SOG
- 2.43
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 0.47
- BLK
- 0.63
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 19 | 53 | 72 | 0.89 | 184 | 20:39 |
| 2024-25 | 30 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.67 | 78 | 20:21 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 23 | 57 | 80 | 1.00 | 240 | 20:08 |
| 2022-23 | 58 | 14 | 37 | 51 | 0.88 | 139 | 18:43 |
| 2021-22 | 73 | 15 | 44 | 59 | 0.81 | 161 | 18:01 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1.00 | 15 | 21:08 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.33 | 14 | 17:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs CAR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 |
| Apr 12 | vs MTL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:40 |
| Apr 11 | vs OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22:49 |
| Apr 9 | vs TOR | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:36 |
| Apr 4 | @ CAR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:30 |
| Apr 3 | vs PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:06 |
| Mar 31 | @ BUF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 |
| Mar 30 | vs PIT | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:21 |
| Mar 28 | vs FLA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 |
| Mar 26 | vs DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 24.4 | 19 | minus 5.4 goals above expected | 77 | 283 |
| 2024-25 | 9.4 | 6 | minus 3.4 goals above expected | 30 | 116 |
| 2023-24 | 22.1 | 23 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 78 | 319 |
| 2022-23 | 16.1 | 14 | minus 2.0 goals above expected | 56 | 195 |
| 2021-22 | 18.6 | 15 | minus 3.6 goals above expected | 70 | 208 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 17 goals, 35 assists, 52 points | 2 goals, 18 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 11 assists, 16 points | 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 18 goals, 37 assists, 55 points | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 21 assists, 31 points | 4 goals, 16 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points | 1 goal, 19 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
283 attempts · 19 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.