Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 419 game sample- PTS
- 69.3
- SOG
- 186.2
- G
- 28.2
- A
- 41.2
- PPP
- 24.9
- HIT
- 72.1
- BLK
- 41.6
- PIM
- 30.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 419 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 419 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 419 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.85
- G
- 0.34
- A
- 0.50
- SOG
- 2.28
- PPP
- 0.30
- HIT
- 0.88
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 53 | 15 | 29 | 44 | 0.83 | 126 | 17:20 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 28 | 39 | 67 | 0.88 | 160 | 16:53 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 30 | 35 | 65 | 0.81 | 182 | 17:14 |
| 2022-23 | 73 | 37 | 38 | 75 | 1.03 | 184 | 17:34 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 37 | 35 | 72 | 0.90 | 213 | 18:02 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0.71 | 37 | 17:42 |
| 2023-24 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.53 | 17 | 17:20 |
| 2022-23 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 1.26 | 59 | 18:01 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 | 16 | 18:50 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 | vs COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:26 |
| Feb 4 | vs STL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:08 |
| Feb 2 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:30 |
| Jan 31 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15:56 |
| Jan 29 | @ VGK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 |
| Jan 27 | @ STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Jan 23 | vs STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20:12 |
| Jan 22 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 |
| Jan 20 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 |
| Jan 18 | vs TBL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:57 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 6 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19.6 | 15 | minus 4.6 goals above expected | 52 | 175 |
| 2024-25 | 25.9 | 28 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 70 | 226 |
| 2023-24 | 25.7 | 30 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 75 | 260 |
| 2022-23 | 29.2 | 37 | plus 7.8 goals above expected | 71 | 252 |
| 2021-22 | 33.6 | 37 | plus 3.4 goals above expected | 79 | 304 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 6 goals, 13 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 25 assists, 45 points | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 8 goals, 11 assists, 19 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
| 2022-23 | 25 goals, 26 assists, 51 points | 9 goals, 12 assists, 21 points | 3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points |
| 2021-22 | 25 goals, 19 assists, 44 points | 9 goals, 15 assists, 24 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
Shot locations
175 attempts · 15 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 6
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.