Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 325 game sample- PTS
- 44.8
- SOG
- 166.9
- G
- 10.2
- A
- 34.5
- PPP
- 10.5
- HIT
- 61.6
- BLK
- 152.4
- PIM
- 32.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 325 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 325 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 325 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.55
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.42
- SOG
- 2.04
- PPP
- 0.13
- HIT
- 0.75
- BLK
- 1.87
- PIM
- 0.39
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 57 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 0.54 | 99 | 22:35 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 0.56 | 179 | 23:01 |
| 2023-24 | 51 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 0.59 | 118 | 23:03 |
| 2022-23 | 68 | 11 | 30 | 41 | 0.60 | 165 | 24:58 |
| 2021-22 | 59 | 7 | 31 | 38 | 0.64 | 173 | 26:11 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 31:07 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.67 | 11 | 24:58 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 27:17 |
| Apr 23 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29:41 |
| Apr 20 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 40:50 |
| Apr 18 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 26:39 |
| Apr 11 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24:11 |
| Apr 9 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:16 |
| Mar 23 | @ NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:21 |
| Mar 21 | vs TOR | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 28:36 |
| Mar 19 | vs NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 30:53 |
| Mar 18 | @ WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 28:06 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 11 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5.7 | 7 | plus 1.3 goals above expected | 54 | 151 |
| 2024-25 | 8.8 | 9 | plus 0.2 goals above expected | 74 | 258 |
| 2023-24 | 7.2 | 9 | plus 1.8 goals above expected | 50 | 164 |
| 2022-23 | 9.3 | 11 | plus 1.7 goals above expected | 65 | 228 |
| 2021-22 | 10.0 | 7 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 56 | 227 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 18 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 8 goals, 29 assists, 37 points | 1 goal, 7 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 8 goals, 15 assists, 23 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 15 assists, 21 points | 5 goals, 15 assists, 20 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 19 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
151 attempts · 7 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 11
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.