Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 443 game sample- PTS
- 92.3
- SOG
- 178.0
- G
- 27.2
- A
- 65.0
- PPP
- 28.5
- HIT
- 51.8
- BLK
- 48.0
- PIM
- 21.3
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 443 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 443 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 443 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 1.13
- G
- 0.33
- A
- 0.80
- SOG
- 2.17
- PPP
- 0.35
- HIT
- 0.63
- BLK
- 0.58
- PIM
- 0.26
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 24 | 56 | 80 | 0.99 | 165 | 19:58 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 27 | 75 | 102 | 1.26 | 173 | 21:19 |
| 2023-24 | 69 | 26 | 59 | 85 | 1.23 | 158 | 21:17 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 30 | 69 | 99 | 1.24 | 196 | 21:17 |
| 2021-22 | 72 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 1.35 | 224 | 20:53 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 1.32 | 57 | 21:47 |
| 2024-25 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 1.00 | 16 | 22:11 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 12 | 21:13 |
| 2022-23 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 1.27 | 33 | 24:08 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.14 | 21 | 22:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 21:38 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:00 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:54 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:22 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:59 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:02 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 18.5 | 24 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 73 | 251 |
| 2024-25 | 21.5 | 27 | plus 5.5 goals above expected | 78 | 263 |
| 2023-24 | 19.6 | 26 | plus 6.4 goals above expected | 68 | 246 |
| 2022-23 | 21.6 | 30 | plus 8.4 goals above expected | 77 | 262 |
| 2021-22 | 28.0 | 35 | plus 7.0 goals above expected | 71 | 315 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 19 goals, 36 assists, 55 points | 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 20 goals, 48 assists, 68 points | 6 goals, 26 assists, 32 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 17 goals, 40 assists, 57 points | 8 goals, 19 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 41 assists, 58 points | 9 goals, 27 assists, 36 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points |
| 2021-22 | 27 goals, 42 assists, 69 points | 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points |
Shot locations
251 attempts · 24 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.