Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 411 game sample- PTS
- 45.5
- SOG
- 202.5
- G
- 24.9
- A
- 20.6
- PPP
- 20.3
- HIT
- 88.0
- BLK
- 40.8
- PIM
- 15.6
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 411 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 411 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 411 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.56
- G
- 0.30
- A
- 0.25
- SOG
- 2.47
- PPP
- 0.25
- HIT
- 1.07
- BLK
- 0.50
- PIM
- 0.19
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 0.52 | 219 | 16:52 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 28 | 20 | 48 | 0.59 | 171 | 16:39 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 19 | 21 | 40 | 0.50 | 183 | 16:50 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 27 | 23 | 50 | 0.78 | 191 | 16:47 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 25 | 17 | 42 | 0.55 | 184 | 15:02 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0.85 | 26 | 18:01 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0.86 | 11 | 16:08 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.57 | 14 | 16:47 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:46 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:28 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:02 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:53 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31.2 | 23 | minus 8.2 goals above expected | 79 | 321 |
| 2024-25 | 24.0 | 28 | plus 4.0 goals above expected | 76 | 241 |
| 2023-24 | 23.9 | 19 | minus 4.9 goals above expected | 76 | 251 |
| 2022-23 | 24.7 | 27 | plus 2.3 goals above expected | 61 | 245 |
| 2021-22 | 20.2 | 25 | plus 4.8 goals above expected | 71 | 225 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 14 assists, 18 points | 19 goals, 5 assists, 24 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 14 goals, 5 assists, 19 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 15 goals, 13 assists, 28 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 21 goals, 14 assists, 35 points | 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 22 goals, 16 assists, 38 points | 3 goals, 1 assist, 4 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
321 attempts · 23 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.