Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 407 game sample- PTS
- 31.5
- SOG
- 134.2
- G
- 7.8
- A
- 23.6
- PPP
- 4.6
- HIT
- 39.3
- BLK
- 137.7
- PIM
- 29.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 407 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 407 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 407 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 1.64
- PPP
- 0.06
- HIT
- 0.47
- BLK
- 1.68
- PIM
- 0.36
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 0.38 | 158 | 24:49 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 0.40 | 100 | 23:21 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 5 | 27 | 32 | 0.39 | 107 | 22:10 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 0.33 | 115 | 23:01 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 0.39 | 170 | 24:53 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:07 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26:56 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25:30 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:41 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:49 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:29 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20:08 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25:21 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 24:50 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:39 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.9 | 9 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 77 | 230 |
| 2024-25 | 5.8 | 7 | plus 1.2 goals above expected | 64 | 147 |
| 2023-24 | 4.9 | 5 | plus 0.1 goals above expected | 72 | 154 |
| 2022-23 | 6.4 | 6 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 68 | 173 |
| 2021-22 | 8.6 | 9 | plus 0.5 goals above expected | 73 | 221 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 22 assists, 27 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points |
| 2023-24 | 5 goals, 20 assists, 25 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 17 assists, 23 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 14 assists, 22 points | 1 goal, 6 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
230 attempts · 9 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.