Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 441 game sample- PTS
- 38.8
- SOG
- 180.7
- G
- 14.1
- A
- 24.7
- PPP
- 8.8
- HIT
- 102.1
- BLK
- 29.8
- PIM
- 38.9
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 441 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 441 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 441 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.47
- G
- 0.17
- A
- 0.30
- SOG
- 2.21
- PPP
- 0.11
- HIT
- 1.24
- BLK
- 0.36
- PIM
- 0.47
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 0.45 | 160 | 16:59 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 15 | 17 | 32 | 0.39 | 161 | 15:13 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 0.49 | 186 | 15:10 |
| 2022-23 | 69 | 16 | 23 | 39 | 0.57 | 184 | 17:52 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 0.52 | 243 | 15:50 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 0.71 | 33 | 16:11 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 0.63 | 44 | 14:43 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.71 | 18 | 19:10 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.71 | 27 | 16:07 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26 | vs MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Mar 24 | vs SEA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:46 |
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Mar 19 | @ EDM | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 |
| Mar 15 | @ SEA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:08 |
| Mar 12 | vs CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 |
| Mar 10 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 |
| Mar 6 | @ DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 |
| Mar 5 | @ CBJ | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:57 |
| Mar 3 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:27 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 10 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.8 | 11 | minus 4.8 goals above expected | 67 | 242 |
| 2024-25 | 16.4 | 15 | minus 1.4 goals above expected | 79 | 250 |
| 2023-24 | 17.6 | 12 | minus 5.6 goals above expected | 76 | 259 |
| 2022-23 | 18.2 | 16 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 65 | 235 |
| 2021-22 | 24.7 | 19 | minus 5.7 goals above expected | 78 | 310 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 16 assists, 25 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 7 assists, 10 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points | 6 goals, 5 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 12 goals, 23 assists, 35 points | 7 goals, 1 assist, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
242 attempts · 11 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 10
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.