Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 405 game sample- PTS
- 43.6
- SOG
- 170.1
- G
- 16.7
- A
- 27.0
- PPP
- 11.4
- HIT
- 51.9
- BLK
- 41.7
- PIM
- 41.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 405 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 405 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 405 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.20
- A
- 0.33
- SOG
- 2.08
- PPP
- 0.14
- HIT
- 0.63
- BLK
- 0.51
- PIM
- 0.50
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 12 | 21 | 33 | 0.46 | 137 | 17:11 |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 19 | 31 | 50 | 0.62 | 171 | 18:39 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 20 | 27 | 47 | 0.57 | 200 | 14:32 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 17 | 29 | 46 | 0.57 | 167 | 15:07 |
| 2021-22 | 77 | 19 | 33 | 52 | 0.68 | 203 | 16:25 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.38 | 24 | 15:05 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Apr 12 | vs BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 |
| Apr 11 | @ MTL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10:52 |
| Apr 9 | @ BUF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:39 |
| Apr 7 | @ DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:34 |
| Apr 4 | vs WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 |
| Apr 2 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 |
| Mar 31 | vs CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 |
| Mar 29 | vs BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13:18 |
| Mar 28 | vs SJS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.0 | 12 | minus 4.0 goals above expected | 66 | 217 |
| 2024-25 | 22.9 | 19 | minus 3.9 goals above expected | 75 | 271 |
| 2023-24 | 20.4 | 20 | minus 0.4 goals above expected | 79 | 275 |
| 2022-23 | 16.2 | 17 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 75 | 234 |
| 2021-22 | 20.6 | 19 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 74 | 266 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points | 2 goals, 8 assists, 10 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 12 goals, 22 assists, 34 points | 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 19 goals, 23 assists, 42 points | 1 goal, 4 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2022-23 | 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 18 goals, 31 assists, 49 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
217 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.