Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 426 game sample- PTS
- 16.7
- SOG
- 91.5
- G
- 4.7
- A
- 12.0
- PPP
- 0.3
- HIT
- 156.1
- BLK
- 101.3
- PIM
- 70.1
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 426 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 426 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 426 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.20
- G
- 0.06
- A
- 0.15
- SOG
- 1.11
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.91
- BLK
- 1.24
- PIM
- 0.86
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 68 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.16 | 68 | 20:22 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 0.29 | 116 | 20:11 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 0.21 | 93 | 20:02 |
| 2022-23 | 81 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0.07 | 62 | 17:26 |
| 2021-22 | 54 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 0.24 | 58 | 16:59 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.27 | 18 | 20:13 |
| 2023-24 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.17 | 23 | 18:39 |
| 2022-23 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 6 | 14:23 |
| 2021-22 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 7 | 15:39 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | @ CGY | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:01 |
| Mar 19 | @ EDM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22:31 |
| Mar 15 | @ SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Mar 12 | vs CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18:29 |
| Mar 10 | vs DET | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:59 |
| Mar 6 | @ DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 22:54 |
| Mar 5 | @ CBJ | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 |
| Mar 3 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20:04 |
| Mar 1 | @ NYI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:03 |
| Feb 27 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25:29 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Mar 3 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.6 | 3 | minus 0.6 goals above expected | 54 | 125 |
| 2024-25 | 5.3 | 6 | plus 0.7 goals above expected | 69 | 176 |
| 2023-24 | 4.3 | 3 | minus 1.3 goals above expected | 63 | 128 |
| 2022-23 | 2.8 | 1 | minus 1.8 goals above expected | 57 | 91 |
| 2021-22 | 3.0 | 3 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 43 | 79 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
Shot locations
125 attempts · 3 goals · 2025-26Markets · Mar 3
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.