Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 410 game sample- PTS
- 31.5
- SOG
- 114.8
- G
- 9.7
- A
- 21.8
- PPP
- 3.1
- HIT
- 57.5
- BLK
- 117.4
- PIM
- 41.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 410 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 410 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 410 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.38
- G
- 0.12
- A
- 0.27
- SOG
- 1.40
- PPP
- 0.04
- HIT
- 0.70
- BLK
- 1.44
- PIM
- 0.51
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 0.43 | 119 | 23:44 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 0.37 | 112 | 23:05 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 0.30 | 114 | 20:37 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 0.26 | 89 | 21:58 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0.41 | 108 | 22:17 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 5 | 20:59 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 19:49 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 10 | 21:38 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | @ TBL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26:23 |
| Apr 13 | @ FLA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:13 |
| Apr 11 | @ DAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 |
| Apr 8 | vs BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24:41 |
| Apr 5 | vs WSH | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21:05 |
| Apr 4 | vs DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26:00 |
| Apr 2 | vs MTL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 |
| Mar 31 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 22:18 |
| Mar 29 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24:54 |
| Mar 27 | vs CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 23:34 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 8 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.4 | 14 | plus 6.6 goals above expected | 74 | 194 |
| 2024-25 | 5.8 | 5 | minus 0.8 goals above expected | 72 | 169 |
| 2023-24 | 4.5 | 6 | plus 1.5 goals above expected | 65 | 147 |
| 2022-23 | 6.2 | 6 | minus 0.2 goals above expected | 54 | 124 |
| 2021-22 | 7.3 | 5 | minus 2.3 goals above expected | 66 | 145 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 11 goals, 17 assists, 28 points | 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 24 assists, 29 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 16 assists, 22 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 12 assists, 17 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 5 goals, 27 assists, 32 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
Shot locations
194 attempts · 14 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 8
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.