Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 373 game sample- PTS
- 36.9
- SOG
- 109.6
- G
- 22.4
- A
- 14.5
- PPP
- 1.7
- HIT
- 153.0
- BLK
- 42.5
- PIM
- 48.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 373 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 373 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 373 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.45
- G
- 0.27
- A
- 0.18
- SOG
- 1.34
- PPP
- 0.02
- HIT
- 1.87
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.59
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 58 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 0.38 | 66 | 14:53 |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 23 | 17 | 40 | 0.50 | 125 | 14:52 |
| 2023-24 | 72 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 0.26 | 76 | 13:14 |
| 2022-23 | 54 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0.24 | 53 | 13:04 |
| 2021-22 | 47 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 0.43 | 39 | 10:40 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 0.82 | 41 | 16:37 |
| 2024-25 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 15 | 13:50 |
| 2023-24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 7 | 13:02 |
| 2022-23 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.45 | 30 | 13:59 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 | vs CARPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Jun 11 | @ CARPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 |
| Jun 9 | vs CARPO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 |
| Jun 6 | vs CARPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:31 |
| Jun 4 | @ CARPO | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:35 |
| Jun 2 | @ CARPO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 |
| May 26 | vs COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 |
| May 24 | vs COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| May 22 | @ COLPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:09 |
| May 20 | @ COLPO | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:11 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 7 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.9 | 12 | plus 2.1 goals above expected | 43 | 103 |
| 2024-25 | 18.7 | 23 | plus 4.3 goals above expected | 68 | 181 |
| 2023-24 | 9.1 | 8 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 53 | 105 |
| 2022-23 | 8.4 | 6 | minus 2.4 goals above expected | 42 | 83 |
| 2021-22 | 4.9 | 9 | plus 4.1 goals above expected | 31 | 60 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 7 assists, 19 points | 0 goals, 3 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 21 goals, 17 assists, 38 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 7 assists, 13 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2021-22 | 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
Shot locations
103 attempts · 12 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 7
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.