Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 401 game sample- PTS
- 17.3
- SOG
- 99.3
- G
- 8.6
- A
- 8.7
- PPP
- 1.1
- HIT
- 215.6
- BLK
- 35.1
- PIM
- 66.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 401 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 401 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 401 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.21
- G
- 0.10
- A
- 0.10
- SOG
- 1.21
- PPP
- 0.01
- HIT
- 2.64
- BLK
- 0.43
- PIM
- 0.82
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.09 | 77 | 11:02 |
| 2024-25 | 58 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 0.26 | 78 | 13:43 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.49 | 123 | 13:46 |
| 2022-23 | 79 | 17 | 14 | 31 | 0.39 | 120 | 11:55 |
| 2021-22 | 60 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 0.30 | 100 | 11:39 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 9:11 |
| 2024-25 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.18 | 22 | 11:25 |
| 2023-24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.38 | 18 | 13:23 |
| 2022-23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8 | 10:19 |
| 2021-22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 5 | 8:41 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | @ ANAPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 |
| Apr 24 | @ ANAPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 |
| Apr 22 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:15 |
| Apr 20 | vs ANAPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8:33 |
| Apr 16 | vs VAN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:37 |
| Apr 13 | vs COL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 |
| Apr 11 | @ LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 |
| Apr 8 | @ SJS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 |
| Apr 7 | @ UTA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 |
| Apr 4 | vs VGK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 9.9 | 4 | minus 5.9 goals above expected | 56 | 109 |
| 2024-25 | 8.5 | 8 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 51 | 118 |
| 2023-24 | 14.7 | 18 | plus 3.3 goals above expected | 69 | 174 |
| 2022-23 | 12.5 | 17 | plus 4.5 goals above expected | 64 | 161 |
| 2021-22 | 9.7 | 8 | minus 1.7 goals above expected | 50 | 126 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 3 assists, 7 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 5 assists, 12 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 16 goals, 22 assists, 38 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 17 goals, 13 assists, 30 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
109 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.