Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 365 game sample- PTS
- 16.1
- SOG
- 85.8
- G
- 3.8
- A
- 12.3
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 124.0
- BLK
- 148.2
- PIM
- 30.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 365 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 365 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 365 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.19
- G
- 0.04
- A
- 0.15
- SOG
- 1.04
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 1.51
- BLK
- 1.81
- PIM
- 0.37
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 77 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 0.18 | 82 | 19:23 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 1 | 16 | 17 | 0.22 | 80 | 18:37 |
| 2023-24 | 38 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0.26 | 37 | 16:24 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0.16 | 90 | 21:15 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 0.18 | 72 | 21:29 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 6 | 19:46 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 14:45 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | vs BUFPO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 20:04 |
| Apr 28 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 22:52 |
| Apr 26 | vs BUFPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22:32 |
| Apr 23 | vs BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:21 |
| Apr 21 | @ BUFPO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15:41 |
| Apr 19 | @ BUFPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19:03 |
| Apr 14 | vs NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:16 |
| Apr 12 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21:35 |
| Apr 11 | vs TBL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19:35 |
| Apr 7 | @ CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18:55 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3.1 | 5 | plus 1.9 goals above expected | 63 | 136 |
| 2024-25 | 3.2 | 1 | minus 2.2 goals above expected | 62 | 127 |
| 2023-24 | 1.0 | 1 | minus 0.0 goals above expected | 29 | 62 |
| 2022-23 | 3.1 | 6 | plus 2.9 goals above expected | 62 | 126 |
| 2021-22 | 3.5 | 2 | minus 1.6 goals above expected | 57 | 109 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 5 goals, 9 assists, 14 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2024-25 | 0 goals, 15 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2023-24 | 1 goal, 8 assists, 9 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
136 attempts · 5 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.