Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 379 game sample- PTS
- 46.9
- SOG
- 133.6
- G
- 7.5
- A
- 39.5
- PPP
- 16.3
- HIT
- 124.8
- BLK
- 96.4
- PIM
- 38.8
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 379 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among defencemen · 508 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 508 defencemen, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 379 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 379 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.57
- G
- 0.09
- A
- 0.48
- SOG
- 1.63
- PPP
- 0.20
- HIT
- 1.52
- BLK
- 1.18
- PIM
- 0.47
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 8 | 41 | 49 | 0.60 | 137 | 25:01 |
| 2024-25 | 61 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 0.54 | 83 | 23:53 |
| 2023-24 | 81 | 5 | 43 | 48 | 0.59 | 148 | 23:26 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 9 | 30 | 39 | 0.61 | 124 | 21:42 |
| 2021-22 | 78 | 5 | 33 | 38 | 0.49 | 133 | 22:02 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 13 | 21:02 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | @ EDM | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27:44 |
| Apr 14 | vs LAK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23:46 |
| Apr 12 | @ ANA | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:42 |
| Apr 11 | @ SJS | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 30:55 |
| Apr 9 | @ LAK | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26:18 |
| Apr 7 | vs VGK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26:53 |
| Apr 4 | vs UTA | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 26:59 |
| Apr 2 | @ MIN | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26:49 |
| Apr 1 | @ COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28:47 |
| Mar 30 | @ VGK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:00 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.2 | 8 | plus 0.8 goals above expected | 73 | 208 |
| 2024-25 | 5.1 | 5 | minus 0.1 goals above expected | 55 | 154 |
| 2023-24 | 8.0 | 5 | minus 3.0 goals above expected | 79 | 229 |
| 2022-23 | 6.6 | 9 | plus 2.4 goals above expected | 55 | 168 |
| 2021-22 | 7.9 | 5 | minus 2.9 goals above expected | 71 | 191 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 goals, 22 assists, 26 points | 4 goals, 17 assists, 21 points | 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points | 0 goals, 7 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 34 assists, 37 points | 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2022-23 | 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points | 4 goals, 12 assists, 16 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
| 2021-22 | 3 goals, 28 assists, 31 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points |
Shot locations
208 attempts · 8 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.