Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 408 game sample- PTS
- 13.9
- SOG
- 76.8
- G
- 6.6
- A
- 7.3
- PPP
- 0.1
- HIT
- 178.9
- BLK
- 56.3
- PIM
- 83.0
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 408 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 408 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 408 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.17
- G
- 0.08
- A
- 0.09
- SOG
- 0.93
- PPP
- 0.00
- HIT
- 2.19
- BLK
- 0.69
- PIM
- 1.02
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0.11 | 64 | 11:04 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 0.26 | 83 | 13:20 |
| 2023-24 | 80 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0.16 | 92 | 10:52 |
| 2022-23 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 0.20 | 80 | 10:46 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 0.21 | 91 | 10:13 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.40 | 11 | 14:10 |
| 2023-24 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 6 | 7:46 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 11:19 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 6 | 7:08 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 | @ CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 |
| Apr 12 | vs PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9:57 |
| Apr 11 | @ PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 |
| Apr 8 | @ TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 |
| Apr 5 | @ NYR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13:29 |
| Apr 4 | vs BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 |
| Apr 2 | @ NJD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 |
| Mar 31 | vs PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Mar 28 | @ VGK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:53 |
| Mar 26 | @ UTA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:35 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.3 | 4 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 63 | 103 |
| 2024-25 | 12.8 | 9 | minus 3.8 goals above expected | 68 | 138 |
| 2023-24 | 9.4 | 5 | minus 4.4 goals above expected | 65 | 139 |
| 2022-23 | 9.5 | 9 | minus 0.5 goals above expected | 43 | 115 |
| 2021-22 | 8.7 | 6 | minus 2.7 goals above expected | 62 | 120 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 goals, 5 assists, 8 points | 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2024-25 | 9 goals, 11 assists, 20 points | 0-0-0 | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2022-23 | 8 goals, 1 assist, 9 points | 0-0-0 | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2021-22 | 6 goals, 11 assists, 17 points | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
103 attempts · 4 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.