Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 175 game sample- PTS
- 35.0
- SOG
- 116.2
- G
- 17.4
- A
- 17.6
- PPP
- 5.8
- HIT
- 133.2
- BLK
- 50.4
- PIM
- 19.4
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 175 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this finishing edge probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 175 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 175 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.43
- G
- 0.21
- A
- 0.21
- SOG
- 1.42
- PPP
- 0.07
- HIT
- 1.63
- BLK
- 0.61
- PIM
- 0.23
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 64 | 17 | 17 | 34 | 0.53 | 104 | 12:40 |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 0.29 | 89 | 11:52 |
| 2023-24 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.37 | 31 | 11:07 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 8:24 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 7:56 |
| 2023-24 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 11 | 11:56 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22 | @ PHIPO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:24 |
| Apr 14 | @ STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:41 |
| Apr 12 | @ WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:24 |
| Apr 11 | vs WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12:27 |
| Apr 9 | @ NJD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 |
| Apr 5 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:32 |
| Apr 4 | vs FLA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 |
| Apr 2 | @ TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9:53 |
| Mar 31 | vs DET | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:43 |
| Mar 30 | @ NYI | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14:23 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 2 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 15.9 | 17 | plus 1.1 goals above expected | 59 | 161 |
| 2024-25 | 12.2 | 11 | minus 1.2 goals above expected | 59 | 132 |
| 2023-24 | 4.1 | 5 | plus 0.9 goals above expected | 17 | 44 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running hot is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14 goals, 15 assists, 29 points | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2024-25 | 7 goals, 10 assists, 17 points | 4 goals, 1 assist, 5 points | 0-0-0 |
| 2023-24 | 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points | 0-0-0 |
Shot locations
161 attempts · 17 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 2
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.