Projected · remaining schedule
82 team games · 390 game sample- PTS
- 43.4
- SOG
- 197.8
- G
- 19.3
- A
- 24.1
- PPP
- 3.9
- HIT
- 83.0
- BLK
- 43.2
- PIM
- 15.2
Each figure is this player's recency-weighted per-game rate over 390 real games × their team's 82 scheduled games. Availability is not projected — injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled anywhere in this project, so the team's schedule is the multiplier, not a forecast of how many games this player will dress for. League board.
What carries into 2026-27
a forecast, not a resultMost of this cold run probably won’t repeat
Among forwards · 973 ranked
Production
Style & role
Percentile against 973 forwards, 2025-26. Shrunk rate is the per-game rate the rank was computed from, pulled toward the league mean by sample size so a short career does not read as an elite one — so it sits closer to average than the rate actually recorded. This skater’s sample is 390 games. Further right means more, not better: hits, blocks and penalty minutes describe a role, not quality.
Observed rates
per game · recency-weighted, not shrunk · 390 games incl. playoffs- PTS
- 0.53
- G
- 0.24
- A
- 0.29
- SOG
- 2.42
- PPP
- 0.05
- HIT
- 1.01
- BLK
- 0.52
- PIM
- 0.18
Season totals
regular season| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 69 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 0.46 | 159 | 16:44 |
| 2024-25 | 71 | 18 | 22 | 40 | 0.56 | 153 | 16:53 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | 31 | 26 | 57 | 0.70 | 244 | 17:59 |
| 2022-23 | 59 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0.49 | 163 | 16:59 |
| 2021-22 | 81 | 17 | 31 | 48 | 0.59 | 202 | 15:41 |
Playoffs
postseason only| Season | GP | G | A | P | P/GP | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 11 | 19:47 |
| 2024-25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.67 | 14 | 19:56 |
| 2023-24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 15 | 16:54 |
| 2022-23 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.50 | 22 | 19:15 |
| 2021-22 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.71 | 19 | 18:06 |
Last 10 · game log
| Date | Opp | SOG | G | A | PPP | HIT | BLK | PIM | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26 | vs COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 |
| Apr 23 | vs COLPO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 |
| Apr 21 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 |
| Apr 19 | @ COLPO | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:28 |
| Apr 16 | @ CGY | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Apr 14 | @ VAN | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18:37 |
| Apr 13 | @ SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:31 |
| Apr 11 | vs EDM | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 |
| Apr 9 | vs VAN | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:18 |
| Apr 6 | vs NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:43 |
One threshold, applied to all 10: each figure counts how many of the 10 games above would have cleared the Apr 9 posted line. It is not a record against 10 separate lines — this player was priced once, and games after that date are measured against the same number.
Finishing — goals above expected
open play, regular season| Season | xG | G | GAx | GP | Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 16.3 | 13 | minus 3.3 goals above expected | 67 | 236 |
| 2024-25 | 19.1 | 18 | minus 1.1 goals above expected | 69 | 246 |
| 2023-24 | 28.0 | 31 | plus 3.0 goals above expected | 82 | 366 |
| 2022-23 | 16.0 | 10 | minus 6.0 goals above expected | 56 | 218 |
| 2021-22 | 24.6 | 17 | minus 7.6 goals above expected | 74 | 285 |
How the 2026-27 projection is made
a forecast, not a resultFinishing persists year over year, but only partly. That share is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, and what does not carry regresses toward the rate for the player's position.
Shot volume is not projected, so the goal figure assumes the same number of attempts. A persistent gap means the skater reliably scores above what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. Running cold is a statement about the season just played, not about talent.
This projection is written to a prediction log on the night it is produced, so it can be scored against what actually happens rather than restated later.
Production by strength
G-A-P, regular season| Season | Even strength | Power play | Shorthanded |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 12 goals, 17 assists, 29 points | 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2024-25 | 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points | 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points | 1 goal, 0 assists, 1 point |
| 2023-24 | 27 goals, 21 assists, 48 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 2 goals, 0 assists, 2 points |
| 2022-23 | 7 goals, 13 assists, 20 points | 2 goals, 5 assists, 7 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points |
| 2021-22 | 11 goals, 29 assists, 40 points | 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points | 5 goals, 1 assist, 6 points |
Shot locations
236 attempts · 13 goals · 2025-26Markets · Apr 9
modeled projectionsPer-game rates are recency-weighted over this player's game log. Expected goals come from the xG model over open-play unblocked attempts; totals are not directly comparable across seasons. Every market — anytime goals, assists, power-play points, SOG, hits, blocks and PIMs — is a modeled projection. Every number on this page was worked out overnight and is only read here, never recalculated while you wait.